So, the Utah Jazz have rebuilt themselves in just a year, or at least it looks like they have. As a Jazz fan I have to admit I am thrilled with this team, and we were a +.500 team last season with Tom Gugliotta and Michael Ruffin filling the minutes at power forward…hello Carlos Boozer! OK, but I am not here to tell everybody that the Jazz are going to win the title this season (!). My mission instead is to point out which Jazzman you can count on to help your fantasy team this season. Let’s start with a brief review of last season’s team and how the guys did considering my league’s scoring system (hardcore scoring):

Andrei Kirilenko F – 37 min/g - 28.5 fppg – 0.77 fppm

Gordan Giricek GF – 27 min/g – 14.1 fppg – 0.51 fppm

Carlos Arroyo G – 28 min/g – 17.4 fppg – 0.62 fppm

Matt Harpring GF – 36 min/g – 23.6 fppg – 0.65 fppm

Raja Bell G – 24 min/g – 13.2 fppg – 0.54 fppm

Raul Lopez G – 19 min/g – 10.7 fppg – 0.54 fppm

Jarron Collins FC – 21 min/g – 10.3 fppg – 0.48 fppm

Andrei Kirilenko was not only a league All-Star last season, but a fantasy basketball All-Star, too. Few players can put up better all-around numbers than Kirilenko and, remember, he is still improving. If the guy ever develops a consistent jump shot (something that I consider unlikely right now), he will become a top-3 player in the league. Period. Even if he doesn’t, his defense and athleticism will likely guarantee him a spot among the league top-10 players. After Kirilenko, Matt Harpring was playing very well before injuring his leg, causing him to miss more than half of the season. His injury gave more opportunities for DeShawn Stevenson and Raja Bell. Since DeShawn was moved to Orlando at the trade deadline, and since I can’t write his name without the word “bust” coming to my mind, I will decline the opportunity of talking about his performance. Raja Bell was solid for the team, and Jerry Sloan loves him, but he was a backup and you can’t put huge numbers playing about 24 minutes per game, and his fppm average wasn’t that great. He is one of those guys who is much more valuable in real world, and had value only in deep fantasy leagues, for teams desperate to fill some minutes at guard.

Gordan Giricek arrived in Utah traded for DeShawn Stevenson, and had a decent run as the Jazz starting shooting guard. Giricek gave the Jazz something they were lacking since Jeff Hornacek retired: a reliable long-range shooter. After the trade his numbers improved (specially the minutes per game), and he was worth a roster spot in most fantasy leagues, posting decent numbers for a 4th option at guard or forward. Point guard Carlos Arroyo came from nowhere to replace the best passer in league history and became a solid contributor in the fantasy basketball realm. Backup Raul Lopez, coming back from 2 reconstructive knee surgeries, had some good moments but was mostly a backup, an option only in deep, deep, real deep fantasy leagues. Rookies Maurice Williams and Aleksandar Pavlovic played sparingly. Greg Ostertag was his usual self (although a little bit more consistent), giving fantasy owners a fine option as a backup center, Jarron Collins didn’t have enough minute, and don’t have enough talent, to become consistent option for a fantasy team, and “glassman” Curtis Borchardt showed promise in the few games he wasn’t injured last season. I will pass on the opportunity to evaluate Tom Gugliotta and Michael Ruffin.

Now, let’s review the fantasy season of the Jazz’s biggest free-agent acquisitions:

Mehmet Okur FC – 22 min/g – 17.4 fppg – 0.78 fppm

Carlos Boozer FC – 34 min/g – 27.9 fppg – 0.81 fppm

Okur had a very good season, although his minutes decreased after the Pistons acquired Rasheed Wallace. But a 0.78 fppm average is definitely above-average for a center. Before the trade for Wallace, he was a spectacular number 2 center in any fantasy league. Boozer was a stud. A fantasy All-Star for any team in any league, and there is nothing else I could say about the kind of season he had

So, what can we expect from the Jazz players this season? How will the addictions of Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and rookies Kris Humphries and Kirk Snyder impact the production of the other players?

First, an educated guess of the probable Jazz starting lineup and rotation is required. Remember, it’s the first week of preseason and Jerry Sloan already said he has no idea on how he is going to use the new players. My guess (and believe me, you won’t find many better guesses out there, since I have followed Sloan and the Jazz since the beginning of the 90’s and have a pretty good felling of how he does things…) is:

Starting linup:
C – Mehmet Okur (30 mpg)
PF – Carlos Boozer (38 mpg)
SF – Andrei Kirilenko (38 mpg)
SG – Gordan Giricek (26 mpg)
PG – Carlos Arroyo (32 mpg)

Backups:
Matt Harpring (24 mpg)
Raja Bell (22 mpg)
Raul Lopez (18 mpg)
Jarron Collins (14 mpg)

Right now, those are the guys who will get the most minutes. Humphries, Snyder, Borchardt and any other will play only garbage minutes, or in case of injuries. Based on the minutes breakdown above, this is what you can expect from each player:

Mehmet Okur – He will play more minutes, so definitely his value is going up. He will probably dish more assists (the Jazz management has stated that one of the biggest qualities they saw in Okur was his ability to pass from the post) playing within the Jazz system. Expect something around 23 fppg, good enough for your number 1 center or number 2 f, and about the same fppm average he had last season.

Carlos Boozer – The biggest story of the last off-season. Fantasy-wise, let’s forget the controversy. There is no reason why his scoring average would go down. The Jazz have plenty of options, but he will be the primary option in the post. His rebounds may go down a little bit because, let’s face it, the West is “bigger” than the East. But for those of you betting that he will not have the same success playing in the same conference as Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Zach Randolph, and company, check his numbers from last season. There isn’t a big difference between his numbers against Western teams and Eastern teams. Expect the Jazz system to keep his fppm about the same, and his fppg average to hit the magic number of 30. No matter if you play him at C or F, he will carry your team.

Andrei Kirilenko – Even with the big free-agent acquisitions, it’s still Kirilenko’s team. The guy will keep doing it all, and there is little reason to believe he won’t improve upon last season’s huge numbers. Expect his points (since teams won’t focus on him so much and leave Boozer, or Okur, or Harpring, or…alone) and assists (playing alongside an improved frontcourt) to go up. 0.8 fppm can be expected, and that would reflect into 30 fppg. A building block for any fantasy team, no question.

Gordan Giricek – Giricek will enter the season with a better understanding of the Jazz system and in much improved shape. He will likely split minutes with Sloan’s favorite, Raja Bell, but we can expect about 0.6 fppm, turning him into a 15.5 fppg guy. You could grab him to fill some minutes as your 4th player, or even 3rd in deeper leagues, at forward or guard.

Carlos Arroyo – He had a very solid season, and what he did this summer in the Olympics gives all indications that he can improve on his numbers. News from the Jazz camp is that Raul Lopez is not 100% physically, meaning that Arroyo will play even more minutes this season. His assists are definitely going up with all those new options to pass the ball, and his confidence couldn’t be higher. Look for Arroyo to break the 20 fppg mark, and have an average of about 0.65 fppm, good for your number 2 guard in most leagues.

Matt Harpring – His minutes will go down considerably, not only because the Jazz are loaded with players at his position , but also because he is coming back form a serious knee injury and Sloan will be very cautious with him. But he will make the most of his minutes. Keeping the fact that he will be a little rusty because of the time off, expect his fppm average to drop a bit to something around 0.6 fppm, and since he won’t play that many minutes, look for him to post around 14.5 fppg, enough for a number 4 guard or forward.

Raja Bell – Raja is Sloan’s defensive stopper, and he also showed a shooting touch nobody knew he had. But the Jazz are loaded at his position, and he will have to settle for a backup shooting guard spot, sharing minutes with Giricek, and most of the things he does are not shown in a fantasy league boxscore…expect about the same fppm average, and 12 fppg. I would stay away from him unless I’m in a very deep league.

Raul Lopez and Jarron Collins – None of them will play enough minutes to deserve a spot on your team unless you are in a really deep league. End of story.

Remember: you can count on Boozer and Kirilenko to carry your team; Okur and Arroyo do give you strong performances each night, and Harpring and Giricek to round out your bench. As a final note, I would take a serious look at Snyder if I were in a keeper league. The guy is loaded with talent, and Bell is a free-agent after this season, possibly opening a spot for in the shooting guard rotation. Snyder can be special in a few years.