BY ddawgs2_03

From basing decisions on last season’s stats, to drafting a center like Brad Miller at #12, many fantasy basketball GM’s (myself included) will invariably err and make numerous mistakes throughout the course of the season. It is here that I will take a look at 8 of the most common and problematic mistakes that are consistently made by new and experienced GM’s alike, and offer suggestions to prevent and correct these mistakes. Note that when I refer to a players FPPM, I am doing so under the standard scoring format. Enjoy!

Mistake #1: Drafting players solely based on last season’s performance.
This is a potentially crippling mistake, one I made several years ago when I first started fantasy basketball. I was fortunate enough to still fare well and make it to the finals (where I got swept); however, not all are as lucky. That season, I disregarded the probability of injury, what team players were on, team situations, and any personal factors, and simply drafted the player with the best stats from the previous season. And apparently others are making the same mistake. Mashburn (yes, the injured Jamal Mashburn is being taken in the middle-rounds, and Malik Rose is going earlier than he should be. Fact of the matter is that a whole array of factors should be considered in fantasy basketball, including the players performance in previous seasons. However, this should not be the foundation and the basis to evaluate players. Additional factors to consider will be examined elsewhere in this article. Plus, none of this (especially last seasons stats) can accurately forecast who will have a break out season.

Mistake #2: Heavy reliance on stats
This mistake closely ties in with the first one. It is important, in order to properly and accurately assess player value, to take into account many more factors than simply the numbers players put up (this includes last seasons stats, in addition to stats the player has been putting up thus far in the current season). Injury history (including the presence of nagging injuries), player age, team situation, and personal matters may all factor in to how a player will perform. Sure, a player may be playing some hella fine ball, but if he has a history of constant, nagging injury, or if personal matters (such as discontent with the team and the coach) are present, it may be wise trade him while he’s doing so well, or least take into account these circumstances and the fact that his performance may suffer.

Mistake #3: Gauging players regular season performances based on their summer league and Olympic play
If you’re drafting a guy because he played some fine summer league or Olympic play, or trading for him, or otherwise favoring him, it’s not exactly sure fire mistake. However, do realize that summer league play is for the younger guys (and some older) trying to show what they’ve got. The established stars are absent. Bo Outlaw was tearing everyone a new one two summers ago, yet, not surprisingly, didn’t do too much last season. However, how players play in the summer leagues can sometimes show some indication of how they’ll play once the season starts. If a guy is playing lazy summer league ball, or looking raw, such as Dwight Howard, then you may wish to be a bit cautious when dealing with him. Additionally, Olympic play is very different from NBA play. Simply because Starbury struggled at times this summer does not at all mean the same can be said for his performance this season.

Mistake #4: Drafting guys you don’t like
This is a more manageable mistake, but one nonetheless. Let’s face it, whether or not you like the players on your team, what matters most in terms of winning games is whether they can produce and put up the numbers to get the ‘W’. However, if you’re team is full of players you absolutely cannot stand, how fun is it going to be over the course of the season to deal with them? Not very. Now I’m not saying to draft Tayshaun, who you absolutely love, over teammate-beater Garnett, who you (and I) can’t quite stand. However, the more players that you love on your team – and the fewer players you hate – the more fun the season will be for you, and the more interested you’ll be in it. And after all, isn’t that why we’re all in this in the first place?

Mistake #5: Real life value translates into fantasy value
This statement is oftentimes true. Guys like Duncan and Garnett – who in real life, in the NBA world, are very valuable assets to their respective teams – are also very valuable fantasy players. However, others, like B. Wallace, are more valuable in real life than in the fantasy world. It doesn’t need to be said, but I will, that the Master of the ‘Fro is one of the leagues best defenders, and an expert rebounder and shot-blocker. Wallace is possibly one of the NBA’s few who can actually contain Mickety Mack Shaq. However, lacking an offensive game hurts his fantasy value. In his best fantasy season fantasy wise, 2001-2002, he averaged 0.72 FPPM. Not that bad at all. However, that would make many players who in real life are less valuable more valuable than him in fantasy land. For example, guys like Big Z. Ask any NBA GM who’d they rather have – Wallace or Ilgauskas, or even Wallace or Dampier – and I would bet my next pay check Wallace would be the unanimous choice. Ask a fantasy GM who’d they rather have, and many of the wiser GM’s would answer either Dampier or Ilgauskas.

Mistake #6: Role players have fantasy value
This mistake goes along a bit with the previous one. Look no further than Bruce Bowen, a defensive specialist, and Trenton Hassell, one of the league’s better on-the-ball defenders. Both are important role-players who most smart teams (minus the Bulls, who cut Hassell) would love to have on their roster. However, both have little fantasy value (Bowen averaged 0.36 FPPM last season; Hassell 0.37). Again, real life value doesn’t necessarily translate into fantasy value. Avoid strictly role players and team players, and aim for the players who can produce.

Mistake #7: In order to win it all, you must have at least one elite player
As a disclaimer, this is generally (but not always) the case. However, if you weren’t able to draft or trade for a guy like Duncan or Garnett, don’t take the loser route that many sports.ws GM’s do, and simply stop drafting and participating. In a deep league that I was in two seasons ago, a GM who was fortunate to have both McGrady and Bryant (who averaged 1.11 and 1.02 FPPM, respectively) on his team was heavily favored to win it all. However, in order to land those two, he had given up some serious roster depth. Who ended up winning it all? Not his team. In fact, my team did. And I was able to do so with Jermaine O’Neal as my only big star, to go along with a rather deep roster of consistently productive players.

Mistake #8: Taking centers too early
No, the year isn’t 1994. And no, The Admiral, Hakeem the Dream, Ewing, and Deke aren’t lighting up the league. Fast forward 10 years. The league is not quite devoid enough of quality center-eligible players that it is necessary to take B. Miller, Ilgauskas, or B. Wallace in the top-10, or Magloire and Boozer in the top-20. Naturally, no one wants to get shut out of a position; however, it makes little sense to draft the center-eligible Wallace when Kirilenko is still on the board (after all, Kirilenko is simply more valuable). Generally, the teams who jump on drafting centers far too early are lacking depth by the end of the draft. Yes, you should definitely target some centers at some point in the draft, but if you feel like you’re lacking a bit by the end, you can always trade for some better quality at the center position somewhere down the line. Bottom line is, don’t sacrifice quality simply because you’re too nervous you won’t draft at least one of the leagues better centers.